Asteroid 2024 YR4: No Longer a Threat to Earth, but Still a Risk for the Moon

In June 2025, NASA officially confirmed that asteroid 2024 YR4 no longer poses a significant threat to Earth. However, new calculations suggest there is a small chance it may collide with the Moon in December 2032. This conclusion is based on fresh data from the James Webb Telescope and other observatories, which significantly refined predictions of the asteroid’s orbital path.

Discovery and Initial Predictions

2024 YR4 was first discovered in 2024 and was quickly added to NASA’s list of “Potentially Hazardous Asteroids.” Its size and trajectory raised concerns that it could become a real threat. Early estimates suggested a 1–2% chance of impacting Earth in the early 2030s, prompting serious monitoring by astronomers worldwide.

NASA’s New Observations (2025)

At the beginning of 2025, data from the Webb Telescope and the European Space Agency (ESA) enabled far more precise calculations of the asteroid’s orbit. The results confirmed that Earth is no longer at direct risk. This instantly reduced public concern, showing that the asteroid will pass safely by our planet.

Nevertheless, scientists noted a higher probability that the asteroid could strike the Moon in December 2032. While still uncertain, the likelihood of a lunar collision now appears greater than an Earth impact.

Potential Lunar Impact

NASA and ESA specialists explain that even if 2024 YR4 collides with the Moon, its stable orbit will not be affected. The Moon’s mass and gravitational pull are immense compared to the asteroid, so the impact would not disrupt its orbit. However, such a collision could create new craters and open new opportunities for astronomical research.

Monitoring in 2028

Currently, 2024 YR4 is too distant to track accurately. NASA plans to resume detailed monitoring in 2028 when the asteroid returns to a more favorable observational position. These additional data points will allow scientists to refine orbital predictions and confirm whether a lunar collision is truly possible.

Asteroids and Global Safety

2024 YR4 is just one of hundreds of space objects continuously monitored by NASA and ESA. Identifying potential cosmic hazards early is critical for humanity, as an asteroid impact could have catastrophic consequences for Earth’s ecosystems. This is why space agencies worldwide are working together to detect, track, and analyze such risks in advance.

Conclusion

NASA’s updated data significantly lowers the fear of an Earth impact from asteroid 2024 YR4. While there remains a slight chance of a collision with the Moon in 2032, it does not pose a danger to Earth. Scientists stress that such monitoring not only enhances safety but also deepens our understanding of the dynamic forces within our solar system.

Asteroid research is a crucial part of securing our future. Do you think humanity is ready to face cosmic threats?

Source: MSN News